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Romney Rising in the Polls, but Is It Sustainable?

Polls show momentum is now with Gov. Mitt Romney, but will they swing back in the president's favor in time for the election?

Just three weeks ago, Gov. Mitt Romney was trailing in the polls and President Barack Obama looked all but set for a second term – or so many of the political pundits thought. On Sept. 20, The New York Times reported that Romney “faced a daunting task,” if he hoped to win the presidency. 

But then came the first debate and things look a little different now.

After new polls released on Oct. 9, Romney had pulled ahead in the RealClearPolitics average at 47.6 to 46.1 and Politico was the only one of the traditional polls that gave Obama a lead at 48 to 49. Gallup had them tied at 48 each, but the Fox News Poll had Romney ahead at 46 to 45. Rasmussen also had Romney ahead at 48 to 47 and Pew Research had the strongest lead for Romney at 49 to 45. USAToday reported that the change is an indication that the race is going to be close right up until the very end.

So do you think this is just a bounce as a result of Romney’s strong debate performance or do you think is this a permanent change in the direction of the race?

George Wilson October 11, 2012 at 03:23 PM
Didn't the Republican congress cut the state department budget for security? I recall an interview with Hillary Clinton in February decrying the budget cuts and saying that it would threaten the security of our embassies.
Pittsburgh Paul October 11, 2012 at 05:08 PM
Question? Is there really still an undecided voter out there? Seems that by now - with all that has transpired in the last four years, and last four weeks, to draw the disntinct differences bewteen the two candidates and their parties - voters (citizens) would clearly know by now who they support. No agenda here other than curiosity as to what would cause someone at this point to be truly undecided bewtween two polar opposite candidates. Thoughts?
Watts October 11, 2012 at 06:45 PM
It is all about the electoral and swing states, in the end. 538 has given a pretty insightful analysis about the current state of the polls today and comparing state polling to national, etc. Obama is still running the board as far as the electoral vote because he is winning the swing states and with Ohio always being looked at as defining the true barometer of the nations final vote, he is still up by quite a bit... http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/#more-35856
GregRodgers October 11, 2012 at 06:54 PM
Yes....you heard that correctly George....(but keep this under your hat...the Republicans don't want people to know that because they want to blame Obama for that.....)
GregRodgers October 11, 2012 at 06:55 PM
I think its going to come down to the wire and in the end....Obama most likely will win Ohio and seal up the next 4 years. It will most likely pan out over the next few debates.
Ross Revira October 12, 2012 at 12:38 AM
Last time I checked there was still a Democrat Senate and Presidency. Did they go along with the cuts?
Sue lovern October 12, 2012 at 12:10 PM
All I can say if Obama is reelected this country will never recover. But i guess all those 47 percent that Romney talked abour that want to leave the foodstamp president in will keep him in. I just cant believe that all the people that voted for him 4 years ago and have not seen the change he promised would vote for him again. Sad. Sad.
Racer X October 12, 2012 at 12:25 PM
Romney's rise sustainable? Oh yeah. In fact, I believe it will snowball and get much better still, especially after the Ryan vs Satan.....er...Biden debate last night.
Denna Millard October 12, 2012 at 01:14 PM
Politics is a nasty business! The NAME blame is ridiculous. ONE PERSON DOES NOT RUN THE COUNTRY. You have senators and congressmen running the country - done by politics - money under and above the table - not for helping us individual human beings. You have big business buying off people for their own agendas - not to help us individual human beings. These last four years have been brutal. Politics wants to blame people for all problems - not so - you have the war, climate changes, diseases, Big Pharma who affect the economy also - ONE PERSON DOES NOT! The debate last night was about a human being and a robot. If you can't tell who was which - you have a problem.
Karsten Torch October 12, 2012 at 04:45 PM
Believe it or not, yeah, it's still up in the air due to undecideds. Truth be told, there's not enough difference between these two to sway independents firmly one way or the other.
Karsten Torch October 12, 2012 at 04:50 PM
I hope the rise is sustainable. Truth be told, I'm absolutely stunned that it's this close, that this many people are voting for Obama given the absolute zero progress we've made over the past three years. I'm not convinced Romney will be able to save our republic, but I do think he will be better than what we have now. I take a lot of what is said about Obama with a grain of salt, but there's enough out there that I know it's time for a change.....
R.H. October 13, 2012 at 05:41 PM
People vote for Obama for various reasons: the Party, and other irrelevant reasons. However, if one looks dispassionately at issues, his performance, his attitude, his secrecy, his clearly anti-Christian stance, one would have to be misguided and/or quite uninformed to vote for Obama. I think we saw what Biden stepping in would be like as well, should that happen. What a pair....this is by far the worst political dilemma I have ever seen this nation undergo, and we have only one chance to fix it before the damage becomes irreparable.
Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 05:51 PM
Republican Congress? George, you just crack me up - lol. I think you go to bed at night and wake up in a cold sweat because Republicans are chasing you - lol You use the word republican like a fly swatter. Karsten, I disagree a bit there. Romney would bring a lot to the table. OK. The democrats KNEW when they worked secretly behind closed doors that it was pobssible that a republican could come on the scene in 4 years. They fixed that thing where whoever gets it next will be stuck for a long time. You and I both know that. In Jan. those taxes on the middle class will begin, and whoever is in office will get blamed even though it was clearly democrats that put that into place. Hopefully, he means it about repealing and replacing obamcare. A Republican president can at least stem the tide for a while, bring some civility to the table. They will also keep radicals off the Supreme Court. And RH, you're right. Hope it's not too late.
Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 05:56 PM
David, I think that most Independents think in terms of having their mind open for either side, therefore will be looking at things that partisan people cannot see (such as George, and even you and I). Here's what I think- the media has carried the water for obama and biden for 4 years now. If they flubbed up, media either didn't report it, downplayed it or came up with a believable excuse. When none of that worked, they blamed George Bush and the public bought it. They denigrated Romney. What is happening now, is that FOR ONCE, the current residents are being challenged, and they have no idea how to defend it. ThoseIndependents are seeing that Romney isn't what he's been portrayed. The emperor has no clothes now and it will be interesting to see how it pans out indeed.
Suzanne October 13, 2012 at 06:20 PM
AMEN Denna.... its just Sad. Sad.....Sue and others don't understand this!
Suzanne October 13, 2012 at 06:25 PM
R.H. ..... and Bush and Cheney ..... who started the whole "political dilemma" .... was the biggest "pair"
Roger Long October 13, 2012 at 06:28 PM
What climate change?
Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 06:29 PM
David, you'd think. Me too. I listen to the other side too, and that's what has helped me come to the conclusions that I have today. Radical libralism had a name long, long ago- in the bible. In the book of Thessalonians, it talks about the last days and people who would "willingly believe a lie". I think the word "willingly" is telling. Seems to me that's what people are doing today. It's like being mesmerized. I wonder if many even realize why-they just blindly vote because they are swayed by the radical-ness of something someone says BECAUSE it's radical. Not a good reason imho.
thcooper69 October 13, 2012 at 06:32 PM
romneys track record in mass was to help close down many business in there state ! with high unemployment there during his admin and those business moving south of the border .
Suzanne October 13, 2012 at 06:41 PM
Tammy .... I'm one of those independents and sorry to say, I see Romney as lean to the right and say what they want to hear during the republician nomination and now that he's their man its "erase what I said" before. This man has checked everything on his list, CEO, Governor, etc., now hes trying to "buy" the Presidency. Unless there is a repulican "House" a republican "Senate" and a "Pres. Romney" we will still be in the same situation, cause, do you honestly think the Democrates are going to work with a President Romney? NO, I'm afraid not....new face for the President...same situation for the people of this country!!! Thats the way I see it.
Roger Long October 13, 2012 at 06:52 PM
Well maybe Romney will do like Obama and bypass congress to do what ever he wants.
Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM
If you do your homework, you'll see that he became Governor over an economy much like obama inherited. He built up struggling businesses from bancruptcy. They were failing when he began and it didn't happen overnight. In business, you have to get rid of the old to create the new. people lose their jobs, but in the end it creates thousands of new ones, more than you had to begin with. Among them, Sports Authority, Staples, and Steele Dynamics that has plants in over 15 states. I just feel that experience actually building something beats going along with partisan hacks (like the democratic congress we have now) by taxing people to death and when that fails, throw more of the people's money at it. Every other president that inherited a mess, was able to dig out in at least two years. This economy was not as bad as the one Carter gave Reagan (double digit inflation). It took him two years of stimulating job growth by cutting taxes the right way. Maybe if Obama at least tried something new, I might take a look.
R++ One of the Famous Dacula Crew October 13, 2012 at 08:25 PM
We haven't had a budget in 3 years... So how could we have "cuts"? That's what happens when everything is done with continuing resolutions; you only get the same amount of funds as before, so IF there is no inflation at all like we keep being told – what’s the problem?
Tammy Osier October 13, 2012 at 08:34 PM
Pittsburg Paul, my thoughts on that- Like I said before, the media has carried the water for bho for four years, making excuses, keeping scandals to a minimum, demonizing any opponents etc... NOW bho and biden are being challenged- something neither has had to do thus far. It's unfamiliar territory. People are seeing Romney for the first time, not as the demon the media and obama campaign has painted, but for himself. They've only gotten a taste. Then Ryan- what a contrast!!! That's why they are still undecided. Let them get more right information, delivered in a way that appears more human, and you might see a new swing voter.
Karsten Torch October 14, 2012 at 02:38 PM
You're right, let me clarify what i said. i think Romney has the tools to fix whats broke, but I'm not sure he has the abilities, mainly the drive or wherewithal to stand up to the GOP machine. I do hope his Conservative bent will win out, but I've only ever seen one politician that would stick with his ideals and principles regardless of outside influences, and that was Newt. GW to an extent. I think Herman was the only current choice we had that would have been his own man. I do hope I'm wrong about this, though.....
Karsten Torch October 14, 2012 at 02:50 PM
And let me be clear about something. something that Tammy touched on. Nobody blames Obama for the recession. We blame him for us still being so deeply entrenched in it. He's had over three years now, two of those with a Democrat controlled congress that would have given him anything he wanted. He couldn't even get his budget or any of his jobs bills passed. And it wasn't just because of an obstructionist Republican congress - not even Dems voted on his stuff! He's been an abject failure on any measurable scale. The only reason the unemployment rate dropped at all was because so many people have given up looking. If we still had the same size work force now that we had three years ago, we would be at about 11% unemployment. So while he didn't cause the mess in the first place, he sure has done a good job of keeping us here.
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Colter95 November 03, 2012 at 07:03 PM
Please don't let Obama sweep Benghazi under the rug... Lets not forget those four who were left to be slaughtered in Benghazi... Do not reward Obama for this epic failure… Every voter needs to read this excellent article... Very well worth your time... http://spectator.org/archives/2012/11/01/benghazi-obamas-core-deceit/ These are pretty good as well: http://www.gazette.com/opinion/romney-146793-obama-benghazi.html http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/benghazigate-obamas-many-lies-about-libya/ http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/50657 http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/25/CBS-Busts-Obama--and-Itself-Hidden-60-Minutes-Clip-Proves-White-House-Lied-About-Benghazi Romney/Ryan 2012
Colter95 November 03, 2012 at 07:03 PM
I saw Obama yesterday claiming the new job numbers are proof that his policies are working and that we are in an economic recovery... Fact is, that is not the truth, or even close to the truth... First, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% and the year-to-date monthly average of 157,000 payroll jobs is barely enough to keep up with population growth -- much less make up for the 8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession. Second, the so-called real unemployment rate (U6) remains elevated at 14.6%, albeit down from 14.7% the prior month. Similarly, the labor participation rate is at 63.8%, up from its multi-decade low but still incredibly weak. Third, average hourly earnings fell a penny in October and average hours worked fell to 34.4 from 34.5 in September. Stagnant wages means "we're not generating income," Reinhart says. "That's a problem in terms of the durability of an economic expansion, which is usually fueled by consumption. To get consumption you've got to generate income." Also, just look at your checkbook. We are paying a lot more for everything now than we did in 2008. The price of gas has doubled. At the same time, wages have gone down, and that's if you're lucky to have a job. In 2008, 25 banks went out of business. In 2012, 48 banks have gone out of business. Almost double the amount. Does that sound like recovery to you? Don't believe the Obama lies!! Romney/Ryan 2012
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